So, unless you have been living under a rock for the past week, you are at least aware that this country called Iran is having some major events take place. I am not here to summarize what is going on as much better summaries and research are already available on the internet (actually Fark.com, known for its snarkiness, has one of the best ongoing threads right now – each complete with an early summary of other threads). I will, however, use this space to express a few thoughts, especially since no one will read this.
For those interpreting the demonstrations as rallies against Islamism – you are misguided. It is indeed possible for the protestors to be fighting for justice, human rights, fair elections and Islam all at once. Looking at the parallels between these uprisings and those of the 1979 revolution (educated class and student-led, cyclical patterns of organization, attacks based on politics versus religious rhetoric, etc.) religion is not likely to leave the state of Iran whether the movement is successful or not. The tone of martyrdom and religious justice is very much a part of the rallies that we are seeing and the reasons people are giving for fighting the government (see the tragic case of Neda or look at the cries coming from the rooftops).
Furthermore, the advocacy for separating “church” and state is not likely to come into play. While Iran has its religious minorities, its two major populations, the Persians and Azeris, are overwhelmingly Shia. Both populations have a history where centuries of court systems and justice are rooted in religious infrastructure. Embracing secularism according to Western interpretation is simply not in the vocabulary of many Iranians at the moment (aside from the communists who survived post-revolution purging).
What is interesting about the past few days is that the clerical leadership has been far from unanimously siding with Ayatollah Khameini. Particularly the targeting of Mr. Rafsanjani’s family in arrests indicates that the religious leadership of Iran is divided and the current regime feels threatened. For those unfamiliar with Shi’ism, Khameini is not the equivalent of the pope. He is extremely powerful and influential and has millions of followers (this cannot be understated). However, there are 28 other Grand Ayatollahs who (theoretically) hold the same religious authority as Khameini,and generally a Shia community will follow the teachings and advice of one ayatollah. This is not to say that Khameini and the other Ayatollahs directly compete with each other – many are located outside of Iran and several (such as Ayatollah Sistani in Iraq) are especially wary of using their position to make political gains. The point is that Khameini, who holds a position much more powerful than the Iranian presidency, is not invulnerable to internal clerical criticism or external political upheaval.
In any case I pray for the safety of those who have the courage to demonstrate even after the not-so-veiled threats of Ayatollah Khameini. Iran’s political crisis does not look to be resolved any time in the near future. If the current regime prevails they have two options: reform or increase oppression to silence their critics. The latter will likely only delay a future, more bloody confrontation while the former requires a sacrifice of the current power monopoly. If the reform movement succeeds then all bets are off.
By the way - I've decided to use this blog to comment more on events of interest than my own life as I've realized how boring my life actually is. Periodically I will write about life in DC and school and such, but I'm going to be mixing things up since the last blog was in January and I clearly have been left uninspired for months.
